A traditional path for second-term governors in Brazil has been to run for the Senate. However, in the 2026 elections, this trend has shifted. Out of 18 state governors reelected in 2022, only six are pursuing Senate seats, while two are running for president.
This change stems partly from local political instability and conflicts with lieutenant governors. Remaining in office allows these governors to maintain control and influence over their state’s political future.
Local Politics Over National Ambitions
In Maranhão, Governor Carlos Brandão (MDB) decided to stay in office to prevent his vice governor, Felipe Camarão (PT), from taking over. Brandão, previously vice governor under Flávio Dino, broke with Dino’s group and now backs his nephew, Orleans Brandão, for governor.
A similar situation occurred in Rio Grande do Norte. Governor Fátima Bezerra (PT) initially planned to run for the Senate but changed her mind, criticizing her vice governor, Walter Alves (MDB). She accused Alves of serving the interests of an “old elite” that never accepted her administration.
Political scientist Gustavo Fernandes de Paula notes that while the Senate is appealing, maintaining state control often takes precedence. Governors may forgo Senate bids to protect their political coalitions.
De Paula explains, “When political disputes threaten their coalition, governors might choose to stay in office to keep their group in power.” This strategy lets them control state resources and shape electoral outcomes.
In Brandão’s case, staying in office gives him leverage over political alliances, boosting his nephew’s chances.
Helcimara Telles, a political science professor, argues that succession planning now plays a larger role in governors’ decisions. Even without running for office, they can remain influential by maintaining alliances with mayors, parties, and stakeholders.
Telles states, “Stepping aside for a period can be less risky than running for the Senate if it divides their group or weakens their state position.”
Running for the Senate can raise a governor’s national profile but also means handing power to a successor outside their circle. Telles notes that the Senate remains powerful, but governors now weigh their options more carefully.
Strategic Considerations in Political Transitions
Governors in Brazil weigh various factors when deciding between staying in office and pursuing other positions. Remaining in office allows them to maintain control over state resources and political alliances, which can strengthen their group’s influence. For instance, by staying in office, a governor can support a chosen successor or family member, ensuring their political legacy continues.
National Ambitions and Setbacks
Some governors aimed higher, seeking their party’s presidential nomination. Rio Grande do Sul’s Eduardo Leite (PSD) said he would only leave office to run for president, but his party chose Ronaldo Caiado instead.
Leite now struggles to secure his successor and keep his group intact. A Quaest poll shows his vice governor, Gabriel Souza (MDB), at 9%, trailing Luciano Zucco (PL) at 26% and Juliana Brizola (PDT) at 23%.
Paraná’s Ratinho Jr. (PSD) faced a similar situation. After being passed over for the presidential nomination, he focused on state elections. A Real Time Big Data poll places Senator Sergio Moro (PL) in the lead with 35%, followed by Ratinho Jr.’s former infrastructure secretary, Sandro Alex (PSD), at 25%.
Both Caiado and Romeu Zema (Novo) of Minas Gerais left their governor posts to run for president. The last governor to win the presidency was Fernando Collor of Alagoas in 1989.
Ibaneis Rocha (MDB) of the Federal District abandoned his Senate bid after scandals involving BRB’s attempted purchase of Banco Master and a rift with his vice governor, Celina Leão (PP). He cited personal and business reasons for his decision.
Rio de Janeiro’s Cláudio Castro (PL) resigned to run for the Senate but withdrew after facing two federal police operations in 11 days. He later became ineligible due to 2022 election violations, as did Roraima’s Antonio Denarium (PP).
The Role of Succession Planning
Succession planning has become a critical factor in governors’ decisions. Even without running for office, they can maintain influence by supporting relationships with mayors, parties, and stakeholders.
Legal and Personal Setbacks
Legal issues and personal scandals have also shaped governors’ decisions.
